Wednesday, 12 October 2016

GLOBAL WARMING - ROYAL SOCIETY

London - Above us the Waves.







My notes - not necessarily accurately expressing the panel's views:

Prof Brian Cox - Chair
Prof Brian Hoskins (maths)
Prof Kate Jones (biodiversity)
Oliver Morton (The Economist magazine)
Prof Keith Shine (climatology)

CO2 is now 400.97 ppm. Average over last I million years was 300ppm.
Last 200 years temp rise is 0.8C - proved to be due to humans

CO2 is 0.4% of atmosphere, which is 10,000 trillion molecules
One carbon atom uses/ generates 1 unit of energy to join the umbrella but blocks or locks in 100,000 units of energy.  100,000 : 1
Ocean is not mopping up CO2 as previously hoped.

INCREASE IS DEFINITELY FROM HUMAN ACTIVITY
Sea temperature is best guide
Old days, they drew up a bucket of water and stuck a thermometer in it.
Ships records go back 200 years.
Essential to correct/ harmonise old data-sets - e..g from Fahrenheit to Centigrade etc From wooden to iron buckets.

WILDLIFE
Spring is earlier
Autumn is later
Already 1/6th extinction of current species
Forecast 10 billion humans
Animals can Move, Expire or Evolve as planet warms
Will humans die off???

TIPPING POINT - not yet reached, still hope.
Greenland melting will take thousands of years yet. (I don't think so)
CO2 (greenhouse gas) persists for thousands of years

TARGET
+2C rise, measured since pre-industrial revolution (200 years)
Now we have +1C rise
2C should hold it at 400ppm
So...  it might stay under 2C

NO human extinction - but could be major die back.
More: HUMAN RACE - SURVIVAL

MOST VITAL ACTION - reduce CO2.

ENERGY
Now - we use 79% fossil fuels.
Target by 2030 is for 65% renewables

CLIMATE MODELS use worlds largest computers - getting more accurate.
Feedback of data makes for reliable Expert Systems - daily updates
Most effective counter measure is to increase cloud cover.

GEO-ENGINEERING IDEAS
Basically silly - vacuum out CO2, put  a sunshade in space; scatter particles in the upper atmosphere;
Unsafe, impractical, unpredictable.
Interfering with water, clouds, weather etc over other nations - could cause wars
The crop growing nitrogen cycle has been human geo-engineered and it works.
Bio-fuels are worse than useless - a crappy idea.
Solutions must be global.
Best - is solar power. Solar Soar Solar.

INDIVIDUALS - change your behaviour - home heat/cooling - travel
Most of all - lobby your governments for immediate action.
The UK has had a major influence on helping China go green.
BREXIT will internationally sideline the UK, which led the Paris talks.
Most Brexiteers are also climate-change-deniers - and vote for Trump.

CURRENT SYMPTOMS - are critical. Action this day.
Look at the data. Historic tables at e.g. England and Wales Precipitation Data.
Extreme weather is on the increase world-wide.
e..g Hurricane Mathew has 6 metre SLR surges. E.g. New Orleans floods
Single extreme events are up 40% in the last 40 years - caused by warmer seas.

PERSUADE GOVERNMENTS
Climate Change Act.
Only 27 MPs out of 650 have science degrees
BUT - Governments have cooperated to fix the Ozone holes over the Poles.
In 1988 Margaret Thatcher supported the Royal Society's work on global warming.

END - Prof Cox said "If this were a BBC programme I would have to provide Climate-Sceptic balance - but it isn't, so I won't" Cheers from the 600 audience.

(I sent in a question - How fast are the ice-caps melting. What is the timetable? - It wasn't tabled. Physicists tell me that no-one has yet figured out how to calculate it)

More: http://sci-fi-future-fact-fiction.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/pope-president-600-scientists-meltdown.html

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