Monday, 24 October 2016

REVERSE THE REFERENDUM! DEBATE



16.1 million voted REMAIN – 48%. When we have lost our banks and key industries, creating immense poverty, the LEAVERS will change their votes – but it will be too late.

Noel
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This is an EXCEL chart of the UK constituencies – 
but it shows what the 650 MPs would vote in Parliament - not the referendum result:



CONSTITUENCY MPs
EU STANCE
156
LEAVE  - 24%
485
REMAIN - 75%
9
NOT DECLARED - 1%
650



Sent: 23 October 2016

To: Noel Hodson
Subject: Better off out

Noel

You refer to the disaffected mob and unemployed shipbuilders. 

Do please look at the actual result. 

Every area of the UK voted to leave except for London, Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

You saw the letter I sent you recently. 

The people who Tony-H met in France and Germany are educated intelligent people and they want to leave too, they are envious of us. Ask yourself why if it is all as hunky dory as you think. 

Answer : there is more going on than your analysis encompasses. Why do these people envy our position? Find the answer to that and maybe your eyes will be opened. 

Best


My view of the 30,000 bureaucrats (employed /unelected like all public servants) in Brussels etc., is that they try to make all the trans-border factors work peacefully across 550M people and 28 countries. Most important is food – hence the Common Agricultural Policy, Wine Lakes and Grain Mountains. Then there are Transport, Telecoms, Health, Money, Police/ Security, Energy, Air Pollution, Education Basics, Space, Science, etc. Their job is to action the will of the elected MEPs. Including our scrappy lot from the UK. 30,000 is about the same size as Stockport Council employees – it is not overblown. Most of each Member’s contributions (an agreed fraction of the VAT we collect) is, by tortuous agreement, fed back to the donor – across that donor’s regions. A part of the money is diverted to the poorest Members, like Greece, to ensure we are surrounded by prosperity and have strong borders. The bureaucrats make mistakes. But we have been central to it all and have had a loud voice in all the decisions. Mistakes can be and must be reviewed – constantly. But in 47 years of maze-like complexity it has worked well – and will continue to work well.

There is no sensible reason to want to see the organisation break-up; as the world heads towards World Government (for the same trans-border issues reasons, globally). The red-tops hysterical “straight bananas” and “throwing-back-fish” and “Euro going bust” stories are utter nonsense promoted by “Elvis Presley alive on Mars” journalists; and by vested interests, as always, trying to escape rules and regulations and make another (tax-free) quick buck. My hopeful forecast is that these forces will fail and the EU will continue to prosper. It is we in the UK who will suffer as we ditch 60 years of hundreds of carefully crafted agreements – and cast ourselves out into the cold Atlantic. All major nations will give preference to the 500M Common Market. We are already globally being side-lined as irrelevant. We will be quickly dismantled with The City going abroad (it is only blips in computers) and all our main manufacturers relocating their HQs and factories.

It is a terrible mistake to embrace Brexit – whatever the unemployed shipbuilders in Hartlepool may think. Farage has convinced the disaffected mob that all their woes are caused by the EU. Trump is doing the same in the USA, blaming Washington. That is utter nonsense. They are of our own making and we could fix them. But not if we are going to focus our top resources for the next 20 years on re-negotiating hundreds of trade agreements , instead of getting on with our own productivity. The UK is not restricted by the EU in doing business globally. After 20 years of decline and re-negotiations, we will end up just as were in May 2016 – same red-tape, same trade barriers, same trading partners, and a disunited kingdom – but we will be a bankrupt, bent-banana, lonely, drowning island.

That is my forecast - unless we rapidly grow-up.

Noel
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From: John

Sent: 22 October 2016
To: Noel Hodson
Subject: Re: Better off out

Noel
You have ignored what Tony's  contacts said about how clever we were to be getting out before the EU disintegrates. 

If you were right it would be difficult but it won't work out like you say. 

All EU Brussels people are positioning themselves on the hard line because they are terrified other countries want to leave. When the negotiations are actually done the self interest of each of the other 27 countries will be foremost and their exporting companies will be lobbying them hard for an agreement whereby they can continue to export to the UK. 

This is survival for the UK rather than being consumed in the fires of the failing EU. 

Best

John
*******

On 22 Oct 2016, Noel Hodson <noel@noelhodson.com> wrote:
John

I’m all for constantly reviewing our contracts with Europe and all nations. One of the Telegraph letters cites 52 nations that have trade agreements with the EU. What is ignored is that the agreements took 20 years to negotiate. In business terms it is a gross waste of time, effort and direction to dump all the past 50 years of UK deals – and re-do them. If it works don’t fix it. In the meantime, the world thinks we have blown it and Sterling is devalued. A famous restaurant reports that its salmon purchases have just “doubled” in price – terrible for upper-crust diners. Most supermarkets are predicting 10% price increases. The EU is saying “no soft Brexit …so sod off”. It will be chaotic for 10 to 20 years. Most investment decisions will be postponed. Britain will freeze and decline. We don’t have to do this.

Noel
********** 


From: John

Sent: 21 October 2016
To: Noel Hodson
Subject: Re: Better off out

Noel
It's observation of what's happening rather than personal opinion. 

Doesn't Tony H's email say it all. First hand accounts of the attitudes of intelligent well educated people in several EU countries. They think it's doomed. 

Also, we are not walking away from our customers. We are leaving a political framework but trade will continue with European countries just as lots of other countries have access to EU markets. 
It is simply not correct to say we are walking away from a section of our overseas market when what we are doing is leaving the EU political construct. Trade will continue. 

On the concept that the EU has prevented wars there is also the view that it is NATO that has done this not the EU. 
Further, the EU is causing civil unrest with its treatment of Southern European countries and policies on migrants. Expect this to escalate. 

Best

John
*********
On 19 Oct 2016, at 13:39, Noel Hodson <noel@noelhodson.com> wrote:
Thanks Tony H, John and Tony-L for your texts. I interpret them as encouraging a break-up of the EU. Why? It has brought peace to Europe for 60 years – which is its primary purpose. I have long advocated reduction of the UK population – but this could be done by our clever, highly-paid diplomats within the EU – just as we have negotiated other special deals. Better that than walking away from 47% (500M) of our best customers. PS – I’m not given to economic-exaggeration. Devaluation reports fluctuate between 16% and 19%. With other direct costs some economists calculate 20% losses = $1.2 trillion = $50,000 per household (about). The costs will increase annually. The poorest will bear most of these costs.

Contrary to The Telegraph’s views, here is a Tweet I sent this morning:
“ Brexiteers who say devaluation is good for the UK. Send me 17% of your savings and I'll agree with you” http://sci-fi-future-fact-fiction.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-britain-sterling-sink.html

Noel
*********

From Tony-L

Sent: 19 October 2016 12:58


Subject: Better off out

John, most people to whom I speak on the matter favour Hungary or Greece. However, I understand from friends living and working in Amsterdam for a few years now that the Dutch are very unhappy with the EU. I think an EU banking collapse will precipitate a major change first.
Tony-L.
*******

Tony-L

Most interesting, from your conversations which will be the next country to vote to leave the EU?

Best

John

*******



Sent: 19 October 2016 11:53

Subject: Re: 2nd Referendum

 Noel

I'm sorry but I really can't agree with you..at all! I was in France and Italy last week and am now in Germany... I am often having conversations with different people in these countries and they all basically think we're very clever to get out before the whole nonsense of the EU goes for a ball of chalk..which it most certainly will! Yes short term grief I agree and it's not pleasant paying 10-15% (don't exaggerate it's not 20%) more for everything ...although a cup of coffee here is still far cheaper than in UK.. roughly 1.20 € for a single expresso.. A couple of weeks ago on my way back from Heathrow I called in at the motorway services on M40 near Thame and against my better judgement allowed the person I was with to go to the stand alone brand spanking new Costa Coffee...even you couldn't begin to guess what they wanted for a single expresso ... £3.50!! I just couldn't believe it ..I gave them a piece of my mind and stomped out of the place! 

Last night I was at a drinks party just S of Munich and I was talking with an eminent doctor and a couple of his very bright female assistants and they all think Merkel is nuts and tell me that probably 90% of Germans would be glad to see the back of her in next March elections - but as yet no one else of presidential quality has come forward. 

I was also taking to a very wealth American woman who lives in Dallas ..she is pro Trump... A point she made as indeed did my wife that if a woman is being "groped" the power lies with her. If she's offended then bash the bloke hard round the head or indeed knee him in the balls! 

The last debate between The Donald and Hilary is tonight ..may the best man win!

Get over it! We're out of Europe .. allow the picture to unfold .. we are strong and very much admired in Europe apart from by the complete idiots who run the so called European Parliament... load of second rate bureaucrats! 

Chill! 

Best wishes for an exciting future! 

Tony H
 *******
On 18 Oct 2016, 
Dear John & Tony
As the UK walks away and deliberately insults 47% of its best customers, Doing a Ratner; as Sterling plummets making us 20% poorer; and as Theresa May, Trump-Hugging-Fake-Tan-Farage, and their demented cronies try to force or sneak through Brexit, based on The Will of The Halfwits who believed the Leavers-Lies; and against the votes of 16.1 million intelligent UK Remainers – against Scotland, N. Ireland and London – in the chaotic turmoil created by this government, you might not have signed this Petition for a 2nd Referendum. Sign it now:
PS – And please circulate it.

Noel Hodson


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